Due to cuts in oil supplies, Belarusian industrial performance will lag behind 2015
According to the National Statistics Committee, industrial production index in January-October 2016 was 98.5%, which means that industrial production is unlikely to achieve 2015 level by the year-end. Industrial performance fell mainly due to short oil supply, which led to oil refining reducing by 11.4%. In the absence of the final decision on the oil supply resumption in higher volume, petrochemical exports are likely to decline, so as the total export of Belarusian goods. By the year-end, the Belarusian budget is likely to raise only USD 650-700 million from export duties, instead of projected USD 900 million. In December 2016, the economic authorities may introduce administrative measures aiming to increase currency sales by major Belarusian exporters and may apply additional financial burden on successful businesses. Meanwhile, reduced supplies in 2016 create a favourable baseline for the oil refinery in 2017 to report performance growth.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.