The credit outlook of Belarus revised to stable from negative
The outlook revision implies S&P’s saw the signs of economic stabilization and improvement of short-term financial conditions in Belarus. In addition, the agency affirmed the short-term rating on Belarus at “C”.
“Foreign currency reserves have strengthened, immediate pressure on the exchange rate has eased, and inflation, although still very high, is decreasing,” S&P said in a statement. However, the ratings on Belarus are constrained by political risks, high government financing needs, reliance on external funding, and the government’s reluctance to introduce much-needed structural reforms to improve the country’s competitiveness and growth prospects.
Belarusian authorities immediately reacted to the improved ratings, announcing plans to accumulate the external debt by the end of the year, inter alia, by issuing Eurobonds – hoping for improved conditions for the Belarusian state securities in the international market. First Deputy Finance Minister, V. Amarin said Eurobonds could be issued “at the end of this year or early next year”. Belarusian authorities consider conditions favourable if return rate is under 10% per year. Mr. Amarin added there were also proposals to refinance the national debt. “We have received these proposals and we are considering them, but refinancing bids fair to be expensive”, he said. Therefore, the government indirectly recognized the existence of external debt repayment challenge and openly declared about searching for ways to refinance the debt.
Belarus’ GDP in the first quarter of 2012 increased by 3% and amounted to Br 105.6 trillion (about $ 13 billion). The projected annual GDP growth is 5-5.5%. Industrial output during this period increased by 8.3%, up to Br 153.6 trillion (about $ 19 billion), with projected annual growth of 6-7%. Investment in fixed assets has decreased by 15.1% to Br 23.5 trillion (about $ 2.9 billion). In March consumer prices increased by 1.5% and by 5% since the beginning of the year.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.