Construction of the NPP will be conducted completely under the credit facilities
Having a high external debt and the vague prospect of its service with meager gold reserves, the Belarusian authorities further aggravate the situation by building a nuclear power plant in the loan, without having even 10% of own funds. Thus, by analogy with the Sberbank,
supervising privatization and credit transactions in the energy sector of Belarus, another major Russian state-owned bank will be financing the nuclear power plant.
Vnesheconombank will credit advance payments of Belarus on nuclear power plant construction in the amount of $ 500 million
It is through Vnesheconombank and the Belarusian \"daughter\" funds of the Russian loan for the construction of nuclear power plants will be held. The entire project to build the nuclear power plant is designed for $10 billion, where the Belarusian side has to pay 10% at their own expense, and 90% - at the expense of the Russian loan. Accordingly, Belarus must find about $ 1 billion, however, the country does not have such money so far, and it searches for new lenders. According to the BVEB Head P. Kallaur, it will be needed about $ 500 million under the contracts to be concluded in the first five years, and it will be provided by his bank. Accordingly, Belarus will not have to take own money from the gold reserves.
Thus, the financing of the ten percent part, which must be paid off by the Belarusian side, will be conducted at the expense of the loan. And so having a high external debt and the vague prospect of its services and payments in scarce gold reserves, Belarus exacerbates the situation by building a nuclear power plant in the loan. It is obvious that the Belarusian authorities are not considering the return period of these loans as close, or not going to give this loan back. In any case, the strategic plan of President Lukashenko, who dismissed the key deputies of P.Prokopovich from the National Bank in 2010, becomes clear. Now BPS-Sberbank and BVEB are the main currency breadwinners to the country, controlling a variety of transactions. The professionalism and quality of NB management have fallen sharply, but it’s is not very important for Alexander Lukashenko. On the other hand, he is absolutely sure of the loyalty of the heads of the major subsidiaries of Russian banks in Belarus.
Over the past year, military-political relations between Minsk and Kyiv have become complicated. Due to their high inertia and peculiarities, this downward trend would be extremely difficult to overcome.
The root cause of the crisis is the absence of a common political agenda in the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. Minsk is looking for a market for Belarusian exports in Ukraine and offers its services as a negotiation platform for the settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian war, thereby hoping to avoid political issues in the dialogue with Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine is hoping for political support from Minsk in the confrontation with Moscow. In addition, Ukraine’s integration with NATO presupposes her common position with the Alliance in relation to Belarus. The NATO leadership regards the Belarusian Armed Forces as an integral part of the Russian military machine in the western strategic front (the Baltic states and Poland). In addition, the ongoing military reform in Ukraine envisages a reduction in the number of generals and the domestic political struggle makes some Ukrainian top military leaders targets in politically motivated attacks.
Hence, the criticism of Belarus coming from Ukrainian military leadership is dictated primarily by internal and external political considerations, as well as by the need to protect the interests of generals, and only then by facts.
For instance, initially, the Ukrainian military leadership made statements about 100,000 Russian servicemen allegedly taking part in the Russo-Belarusian military drill West-2017. Then the exercises were labelled quazi-open and military observers from Ukraine refused to provide their assessment, which caused a negative reaction in Minsk. Further, without citing specific facts, it was stated that Russia was building up its military presence in Belarus.
Apparently, the Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries have entangled in a confrontational spiral (on the level of rhetoric). Moreover, only a small part of the overly hidden process has been disclosed. That said, third states are very likely to take advantage of the situation (or have already done so). This is not only about Russia.
The Belarusian Defence Ministry officials are restrained in assessing their Ukrainian counterparts. However, such a restraint is not enough. Current military-political relations between Belarus and Ukraine are unlikely to stabilise without the intervention of both presidents.