Changes in financial policy stimulate industrial production
The National Bank lowered interest rates on corporate loans in order to improve availability of money for businesses and to keep their current operations uninterrupted. This move will entail reduction in the deposit rates and will force the population to reconsider savings in the national currency. However, if Belarus receives substantial external loans, she will have funds to keep the Belarusian ruble afloat and as a result, lower deposit rates may not imply cash outflow from the banking system.
As of January 22nd, annual interest rates on standing facilities liquidity operations reduced from 35 % to 33 %.
High interest rates on corporate loans in BYR (at 45-50 % per annum) have led to corporate debt reduction in the banks in November 2013. High interest rates were used by the National Bank to reduce the pressure on the foreign exchange market ahead of substantial public debt repayment in December 2013 - January 2014, and to minimize the BYR loans conversion into foreign exchange by businesses in order to purchase imported raw materials and equipment.
However, the unavailability of loans has led to an increase in arrears on current accounts and on budgetary payments, as well as to belated wages.
In order to run business uninterrupted, companies need to have access to loans at low interest rates, which will reduce their servicing costs. However, this requires an inexpensive resource base, which is formed by deposits of individuals and legal entities, and budgetary funds. Corporate deposit interest rates were reduced to 35% relatively painlessly. However, BYR deposit rates for individuals cannot be reduced drastically, because it may result in a rapid cash outflow from the banking system and increased foreign currency demand. The overall volume of BYR deposits in the banking system is USD 6.9 billion, and about USD 3.5 billion belongs to individuals.
By reducing rates to support liquidity, the National Bank addresses several problems simultaneously. As the banks get cheaper money from the National Bank, they will gradually review ruble deposits interest rates for individuals downwards. Lower interest rates on loans will improve their affordability for businesses. Lower interest rates will also reduce the risks of bad loans, as they will be less cumbersome for businesses.
In addition, President Lukashenko made several statements regarding the unacceptability of a one-time devaluation. He is anticipating additional loans, which will enable the BYR to devalue gradually, leaving devaluation aside. As a result, people will stop worrying about BYR devaluation and will not respond to a gradual reduction in BYR deposit interest rates by withdrawing cash.
Thus, in the medium term, banks will reconsider their interest rates on BYR deposits. Banks will increase lending to businesses and businesses will meet settlement deadlines. The National Bank will start reducing the discount rate in order to bring it down to 13%-15% per annum by the year-end.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.