Belarusian salaries in Q4 will recover to 2015-standard
According to the National Statistics Committee, gross wages in August reached USD 383; wages grew for six consecutive months and since February 2016 - by 25%. One reason for the wage growth was layoffs - salaries of laid-off workers were redistributed among remaining employees. Higher communal and utility tariffs have lowered the citizens’ pressure on the foreign exchange market in terms of reduced demand for foreign currency. Due to poor financial health of enterprises, wage growth is likely to slowdown, and layoffs are likely to persist. Unemployment is unlikely to grow due to administrative measures, such as setting a quota for registering unemployed at the labour exchange. Consumer demand is likely to remain low. In Q4 2016, salaries may exceed USD 390, which they were in 2015.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.