Belarusian GDP resumed its fall signalling of unresolved economic problems
In July 2016, GDP fell by 2.7%. Curtailed oil supply from Russia has demonstrated the Belarusian economy’s heavy dependence on the refinery. In the given circumstances, the Belarusian authorities have limited ability to influence the situation in the economy and are likely to wait for external factors to improve.
According to the National Statistics Committee, in January-July 2016 Belarus’ GDP declined by 2.7% compared to the same period in 2015. In H1 2016, GDP fell by 2.5%. Over the past five months, there was a consistent reduction in the GDP gap as compared with 2015. In January 2016, the decline in GDP was 4.4%. Only agriculture, mining and transport industries have demonstrated growth. Construction, wholesale and retail trade and industry have major negative impact on GDP.
In July 2016, GDP dynamics changed, which was due to several factors. Firstly, petroleum production fell sharply in July 2016, which was likely due to curtailed oil supplies from Russia, amid Belarus’ overdue debt for Russian gas. In addition, Belarus could no longer re-export Russian oil products as anti-oxidants, which had a negative impact on chemical production in the Vitebsk region.
Secondly, in July 2016, motor vehicles production reduced sharply. Finally, falling cash incomes of the population reinforced the negative trend in retail sale, where performance slumped in July 2016.
GDP fall in July 2016 implies that imbalances in the Belarusian economy have not disappeared. Exports remain poorly diversified; a list of major exports is limited; and any problems with the oil prices or reduced demand for oil, petroleum products or food industry lead to reduced production throughout the country. The fall in exports cannot be compensated with other exports due to their low specific weight in the foreign trade turnover. Sometimes Belarus benefits from her transit position and re-exports goods to Russia, but the latter has learned to reveal such schemes and to use them to apply pressure on Belarus where needed. That said, Belarus has limited opportunities to resume economic growth. As Belarus has no plans to improve the investment climate, she may only hope for external factors to improve.
Amid economic imbalances and the lack of desire to carry out structural economic reforms, the Belarusian authorities may only rely on external factors to improve, since their reserves to influence the economy are limited.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.