Belarusian economy to see two-year GDP decline

According to the IMF forecast, if current economic reforms continue and the situation on external markets improves, Belarusian economy may resume growth only by 2018 and in 2016 it will shrink by 3% and in 2017 – by 0.5%. The key risk factors for the Belarusian economy include the low level of reserves, increased levels of public debt and deteriorated financial health of enterprises. The Belarusian government is likely to fulfil the IMF recommendations partially – further cut the share of state subsidies for household utility costs and attempt to sell some state assets, which will require the transition to international accounting standards. The state will not give up on performance plans for enterprises, but may narrow tasks substantially. If the state introduces additional measures to ensure Belarus’ financial stability, the IMF is likely to start negotiations for a new loan in late 2016 – early 2017.