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July 31 – August 6, 2017

Anti-Russian sanctions backlash on Belarus

The situation has not changed
Anti-Russian sanctions backlash on Belarus

The fact that Russian and, consequently, Belarusian roubles have depreciated following the information about the approval of anti-Russian sanctions by the US president, has reaffirmed the strong dependence of the Belarusian financial system and economy as a whole on the Russian economy. Belarus continued attempts to counter-balance strong Russian influence by stepping up cooperation with China. In addition, she has prepared to argue about the entire spectre of cooperation issues within bilateral relations with Russia and within the EEU framework.

The Belarusian authorities have not interfered to neutralize the impact from the Russian rouble depreciation on the Belarusian rouble. The financial market is in short supply, and the national debt has already reached a dangerous 40% of GDP without tangible prospects for changing this ratio for the better. The authorities attempt to balance out Russia’s influence on the Belarusian economy by not only developing a dialogue with the West, but also developing relations with China, offering special conditions to Chinese corporations. In addition, Belarus is attempting to balance Russia’s influence by searching for common ground with Kazakhstan within the EEU framework (although, until now, such attempts have been inconsistent and ineffective).

Last week, bilateral relations with Russia remained within the usual framework of mutual ad hoc bans on imports of some produces and symbolic gestures of loyalty. The Rosselkhoznadzor decided to restrict imports of Belarusian ice cream, and Belarus – imports of pork from the Moscow region. The states continued to work on a compromise regarding the Russian border control of flights from Belarus. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry announced an open accreditation for journalists to monitor the West-2017 military drill.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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