By containing housing and communal services tariffs growth, Belarusian government would keep inflation at bay in 2015

April 22, 2016 19:16

According to the National Statistics Committee, in H1 2015 inflation in Belarus was 7.3% due to the devaluation in December 2014. Thanks to freezing wage growth and market import prices, the government has managed to keep inflation at around 10% in H1 2015. Assuming modest growth in utility tariffs, Belarus would be able to meet her inflation outlook for 2015 at 18%. The decline in oil prices could lead to a further reduction in price of goods and raw materials from Russia and have a dampening effect on domestic prices. In addition, lay-offs may help reducing internal costs and lower prices even in the face of shrinking production output. If the state provides substantial financial support for industrial enterprises at the expense of emission sources, the national currency may significantly depreciate, leading to inflation above 20% in 2015.