Trends
All themes
2022
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
May 16 – May 22
Import Substitution Festival: Forecasts and Prospects
Belarus-Russia relations
Belarusian potash in exchange for easing Western sanctions?
Belarus-West relations
Democrats intensify sanctions rhetoric as Tsepkala unites critics of Tsikhanouskaya
Society and political parties
CSTO Summit: Going Together, But in Different Directions
Security issues
The state monopolises medical services; Beltelecom aims for total video surveillance
The ruling elite
May 9 – May 15
Import substitution, arms exchange and energy in rubles
Belarus-Russia relations
As the West tightens sanctions, the Belarusian regime distances itself from the war
Belarus-West relations
Democratic forces shape the international agenda as partisan protests against the regime continue
Society and political parties
Minsk toughens rhetoric as the West declines to engage in dialogue
Security issues
The ruling class engages in liberal rhetoric while restructuring the private medical sector to favour regime allies
The ruling elite
May 2 – May 8
With an ambiguous ally, Minsk reaches out in all directions
Belarus-Russia relations
The Belarusian regime hopes to mediate between Russia and the West while demanding security guarantees in the face of new sanctions
Belarus-West relations
Independent media and state propaganda reach audience parity. Ultimatum positions remain popular
Society and political parties
Minsk wants the Russian-Ukrainian war to end
Security issues
Restrictions on medical businesses, tobacco, and investment; redistribution in favour of state business and loyalist entrepreneurs
The ruling elite
April 25 – May 1
The “Union State” closes in on itself
Belarus-Russia relations
The Belarusian regime is rapidly losing relevance in the eyes of the West
Belarus-West relations
Democrats strengthen their position internationally; tensions in civil society continue to rise
Society and political parties
Minsk will continue to try to distance itself from Russia’s war against Ukraine
Security issues
Repressions in the banking and public sectors; seizures in anticipation of sanctions effects
The ruling elite
April 18 – April 24
Peace Agreement: 50/50. Sovereign default: 97/3
Belarus-Russia relations
The West has not rejected dialogue with Belarus in principle, although it considers it a co-aggressor
Belarus-West relations
An ultimatum strategy prevails for civil society and democratic forces
Society and political parties
Minsk tries to remain relevant to regional security geopolitics
Security issues
Escalation of repression but forced concessions for business
The ruling elite
April 11 – April 17
Fake Factory: Bucha doesn’t exist
Belarus-Russia relations
The Belarusian regime calls on the West for dialogue, but the West does not see an independent player
Belarus-West relations
Democratic organisations strengthen relations with post-Soviet EU countries; civil society focuses on the anti-war agenda
Society and political parties
Minsk tries to return to “security arbitrage”
Security issues
The siloviki strengthen their position in the leadership, the influence of the National Bank on economic policy falters
The ruling elite
April 4 – April 10
Special peace operation. A peacemaker “from the litter bin”
Belarus-Russia relations
Under increasing Western pressure, Minsk is eager for negotiations on Ukraine and demands security guarantees
Belarus-West relations
Civil society seeks simplification of residency procedures for Belarusians in Europe. Democratic forces form an anti-war agenda
Society and political parties
Minsk wants out of this war
Security issues
The authorities are raising tax rates on the population and business as the security forces maintain repression
The ruling elite