by
November 14 – November 20, 2016

Belarusian president falls back on populist rhetoric, albeit without commitment to improve people’s well-being

The situation has not changed
Belarusian president falls back on populist rhetoric, albeit without commitment to improve people’s well-being

Amid the lack of acceptable solutions how to help the Belarusian economy out of recession from the market reforms supporters in the government, the president has resumed the populist rhetoric about the pay rises. Apparently, positions of micro managers in the government have somewhat strengthened, which boosted the competition in the state apparatus. The senior management is unlikely to resume micromanagement policy in the economy, but is likely to implement half-measures in the economy and preserve the balance of interests in the government.

President Lukashenka ordered to level up the average wage to USD 500 in 2017.

The president’s intention to increase the average wage by one third from USD 377 to USD 500 in 2017 has raised concerns among some independent economists about the resumption of the micromanagement in the economy and administrative pay-rises to the population. That said, the president’s statement about pay rises was ambiguous – without an unambiguous commitment to increase household incomes.

A slight increase in the average wage is likely to be due to further layoffs at state enterprises. Simultaneously, the authorities aspire that unemployment rate will remain low due to the outflow of the workforce abroad, primarily to Russia. In addition, international money transfers by migrant workers are likely to support incomes and consumption of the Belarusian families at an acceptable level.

Some independent analysts have not ruled out that the president’s populist rhetoric could help preserving the pre-crisis consumption among the population thanks to dissaving in anticipation of improved well-being in the coming year. In addition, amid the freezing of wage growth, the population has become one of the largest currency donors to the Belarusian economy due to a large amount of savings.

Amid the lingering crisis and falling incomes, the president is attempting to boost his ratings and relieve tension among the population by talking about pay-rise.

You have been successfully subscribed

Subscribe to our newsletter

Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
EN
BE/RU
Subscribe

Situation in Belarus

March 18 – March 24
View all

Subscribe to us

Read more