Amid loyalty of senior management security forces become less sensitive to public criticism
Increased police savagery and incidents with the participation of security officials could imply that the law enforcement system is growing out of balance. The law enforcement agencies have become less sensitive to public criticism and public opinion, which, apparently, is due to the support from the Belarusian leadership. Amid growing tension in Belarusian society, the authorities lack the resources and political will to reform the law enforcement in order to improve their public image.
A man, shot twice by a policeman on January 1st, 2016, in Minsk, was detained.
Amid reduced repressions against ‘titular’ opposition, according to media reports, the law enforcement representatives have become more violent in relation to ordinary citizens. The law enforcement stopped the clamp down on unauthorised opposition activity and repressions against party activists. Meanwhile, demonstratively tough actions by some law enforcement officials in relation to ordinary citizens keep the human rights community and society as a whole, tense.
The role and political weight of the law enforcement in the Belarusian society has increased as the state has fewer resources to buy the loyalty of the population due to the lingering social and economic crisis. This may lead to an increase in conflicts between the law enforcement and citizens, which was typical of the 1990s when public and state institutions were weak.
That said, yet some time ago, the authorities have restricted opportunities to measure the confidence level in the law enforcement authorities by destroying independent sociology. Apparently, amid falling well-being of the population and growing tension in society, the authorities are willing to sacrifice some trust in the law enforcement bodies.
The Belarusian authorities are likely to perceive a possible criticism in the media of the security forces’ actions against citizens as an information attack on public institutions.
Yet the Belarusian authorities have not taken any action to prevent massive protests against the decree on ‘social parasites’. On February 26th, 2017, multiple protests against the decree were held in three Belarusian regions in Vitebsk, Baranovichi, Brest and Bobruisk (more than 4 000 people participated in total). Very likely, the authorities, on the one hand, anticipate that the decree will be abolished, and other hand, do not want to take responsibility for decisions either on the decree or on the protests.
It should be noted, that the mass street protests on February 17th, 19th, and 26th, were held in the absence of the president in the country. There are reasons to believe that the authorities did not expect such a massive action. The state propaganda responded tangentially, insisting that protests were unjustified, because ‘the state did not require a lot’, despite the fact, that the protesters primarily complained about the lack of jobs in the country. In addition, the protesters pointed to the unfairness of the requirement to pay the tax for being unemployed as the state could not provide job and money making opportunities, while people were humiliated by the need to prove to the state they were unable to pay the tax.
In the past ten days, there were several protests against the decree, which were characterised by the following: the protesters easily picked up anti-Lukashenka slogans; they eagerly shared their outrage with journalists; many protesters said it was their first time when they took to the streets; protesters were ‘common people’, i.e. not political activists; there were fewer white-red-white flags during these protests than during conventional oppositional actions; politicians, who organised protests (eg on February 26th, by the centre-right coalition and the independent trade union) did not attempt to take the lead, especially in the regions. All this gives a picture of truly popular protests.
While refraining from interfering with the meetings and protest marches, the militia on February 26th attempted to put pressure on the protest organisers in the regions by handing out reports on administrative violations after the events. Other than that, it appears that the local and central authorities are unable to respond to the massive protests against the Decree No 3, including crowded street speeches, numerous signatories of petitions (over 80 000), multiple collective and personal appeals to the authorities, and mass meetings.
That said, the authorities are unable to enforce the Decree No 3 as they do not have sufficient resources to trial some 400 000 people for non-compliance. In addition, the authorities do not have sufficient institutional capacity to exempt all those not liable for the tax from the mailing lists of the Tax authorities. The Belarusian Bar Association will provide free legal consultations on March 1st, 2017 for those wishing be exempt from the tax imposed by the Decree No 3, however, this would only slightly east the tension in society.
In addition, despite concerns expressed by some experts and the leader of the protest in Minsk on February 17th Mikola Statkevich, there were only scarce reports in the Russian media about the protests in Belarus.