2017: System updates will continue. Forecast for 2017.
Forecast for 2017:
– The state is likely to preserve the monopoly in the economy, while somewhat updating approaches to the state property management
– Due to cutbacks in social protection, wage and job cuts, social tension is likely to grow
– The state is likely to extend co-optation policy to minimise influence of different political groups
– The opposition is unlikely to unite, but is likely to retain constructive tactics aimed at participation
– The law enforcement is likely to continue to intervene in conflicts between nomenclature groups
– The Russo-Belarusian confrontation over cooperation terms is likely to carry on, but may become less intense
– Belarus is likely to pursue normalisation with the West
The main threat is that the conflict between Minsk and Moscow is likely to build up; Russia may increase the price of support for the Belarusian economy.
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Situation in Belarus