by
January 2 – January 8, 2017

2017: System updates will continue. Forecast for 2017.

The situation has not changed

Forecast for 2017:

– The state is likely to preserve the monopoly in the economy, while somewhat updating approaches to the state property management

– Due to cutbacks in social protection, wage and job cuts, social tension is likely to grow

– The state is likely to extend co-optation policy to minimise influence of different political groups

– The opposition is unlikely to unite, but is likely to retain constructive tactics aimed at participation

– The law enforcement is likely to continue to intervene in conflicts between nomenclature groups

– The Russo-Belarusian confrontation over cooperation terms is likely to carry on, but may become less intense

– Belarus is likely to pursue normalisation with the West

The main threat is that the conflict between Minsk and Moscow is likely to build up; Russia may increase the price of support for the Belarusian economy.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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