Minsk enhances negotiating position in dialogue with European Union

Minsk has deliberately aggravated relations with the EU believing that it strengthened its bargaining position in the Belarusian-European dialogue. By refocusing on the death penalty, Minsk aims to defuse Europe’s criticism over human rights violations and deficit of democracy in the country. Apparently, the Belarusian authorities attempt to translate enhanced contacts with European capitals into economic benefits, especially given the oil and gas dispute with the Kremlin.

Since early 2016, Belarus executed four convicts. Despite the desire to normalize relations with the European capitals, in 2016, the Belarusian authorities resumed executions after a long break since November 2014. The Belarusian authorities were ready to harsh criticism by the EU and the international community, because they knew how important the death penalty issue was for the Belarusian-European dialogue. The decision to execute three convicts was made during an active phase of the dialogue with the EU and increased contacts and official visits from Western capitals to Minsk.

The Belarusian authorities are convinced that the EU will not resume the sanctions policy and will retain the established dynamics in Belarusian-European normalisation. However, the Belarusian authorities have sent a signal to Western capitals that the current format of relations has reached its limits and that they would like to receive economic benefits from cooperation, rather than a boost in contacts.

In addition, by putting the death penalty issue at the top of the European-Belarusian agenda, the Belarusian authorities have diverted the focus of the EU from the criticism of the 2016 parliamentary campaign, the NPP construction near the border with Lithuania and other requirements put forward by Western capitals in human rights and democratisation spheres.

Overall, the Belarusian authorities anticipate reducing a broad list of problem issues on the Belarusian-European agenda to discussions about the abolition of the death penalty.